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© 2011 Eric Odom - Movement Politics
About three years ago I got into the movement through what was then called the “DontGo Movement.” At the time gas prices were going through the roof and a group of online activists wanted to tell Congress to “get out of the way” so the free-markets could take hold (You can read about the “DontGo” effort here on CNN). By September of 2008, we had completely changed the way conservatives organized online.
In fact, many argue (rightfully so) that much of what happened during the DontGo effort laid part of the foundation the modern day tea party movement was built on. Case in point, we published this video (below) cut of Rick Santelli’s infamous rant to Youtube on February 9th, 2009. We then sent it to the 10,000 or so subscribers of the “DontGo Movement” with the title of the email being “Chicago Tea Party… count us in!”
The day we published that video we had no idea what we were doing would change everything in politics. We had no idea we were setting in motion a movement that would literally stop the bankrupt leftist agenda dead in its tracks (provided we win in 2012). All we knew is that we were angry, frustrated and felt like we weren’t being represented.
So here we are... three years later and around the corner from a Presidential election that will make or break our future liberty. We as a movement have tough decisions to make, and a lot of work to do.
We have a powerful media machine, partnered with a corrupt, powerful political machine in Washington, that is hell bent on keeping Obama in power. That same machine is also keen on keeping the tea party movement down and out of the general election. They know full well that if another “moderate” Republican is nominated, the same portion of voters who couldn’t get energized for John McCain will again fall short.
We can’t let that happen. It’s time to choose.
It seems that every day I’m asked who I’m supporting for President. Yesterday it was in a comment on Facebook, this morning I got an email asking if I’ll support Sarah Palin, and this afternoon my dad texted me about Herman Cain.
To be 100% honest, until today I really didn’t know which direction to go in. I’ve found myself bouncing around between various candidates for a plethora of reasons. But every time I started to like a candidate I quickly got reminded of why I won’t fully go “all in” for him/her. This morning I had to step back and look at the full range of candidates and eliminate those I wouldn’t select as my #1 option.
Only one candidate was left, and that candidate is Herman Cain.
I interviewed Herman Cain a couple weeks ago. See the interview below.
While that interview didn’t really get into the guts of what Herman Cain is all about due to time constraints (Cain was up to speak next at the rally), the narrative was reinforced that Herman Cain isn’t a part of the machine in Washington and never has been. This is key in my decision to support Herman Cain, and I’ve only just began to embrace its significance.
We as a movement constantly preach that we need a new direction. We constantly say we need “Washington outsiders” to come in and clean house, yet every single candidate accept Herman Cain is a part of that machine. Granted, we do have Michele Bachmann, who I believe is an outsider over all, but Herman Cain brings a whole other level to this. Herman Cain IS the shining example of an answer to our demands.
Further more, Herman Cain knows how to run a very large, very successful business that provides jobs and fuels the economy. He may not be a professional when it comes to gripping and grinning with lobbyists and special interests, but isn’t that what we want? We want real world, free-market experience, not experience on how to play the game and dupe the nation while playing it.
Also, Herman Cain openly admires much needed tax reform. He openly applauds efforts such as the Fair Tax, and he’s the only candidate who aggressively puts forth a coherent plan to change the entire system. Even Ron Paul falls short when it comes to actually having a real plan with real goals and agendas.
Now I know some of my Ron Paul supporting friends are going to blow a gasket over the “he worked at the federal reserve” non-story. Don’t worry, a member of the Patriot Action Network already put that nonsense to sleep. It’s a non-starter and there is no reason to bring it up.
Outside of the fed non-story and a couple instances where Cain’s words have been taken out of context, I can’t find any reason anyone would have any issue with Herman Cain as President.
Can Herman Cain win a general election? Of course he can. In fact, I think Herman Cain would be the BEST candidate against Barack Obama. Can you imagine Obama being forced to debate a smart businessman with no ties to lobbyists and special interests? I mean, we all know Mitt Romney will have a tough time. Newt Gingrich does have enough contrast on issues such as global warming, and Rick Perry would end up embarrassing himself half the time.
Herman Cain has smooth delivery, he’s funny, he’s got a good plan and he’s good people.
I would be honored and pleased to have him in the White House protecting my rights, my money and my shot at prosperity.
I’m on board the Cain Train. There’s plenty of room so feel free to join us!
-Eric Odom
P.S. This is a PERSONAL endorsement and does not reflect on the opinion of my employer, the Liberty News Network or any other organization I may be involved in now or in the future.
Image via Wikipedia
Yesterday I published a post over at LibertyNews.com that points to some recent news about Sarah Palin. From Palin’s rally in Iowa, to the controversy over Christine O’Donnell, to her appearance with the Tea Party Express in New Hampshire, there is a ton of news/buzz flowing and it’s hard to determine what to make of it all.
That said, I’m going to step out on a limb and answer the question so many friends and followers have asked, which is “what do you think Sarah Palin will do?
As far as predictions go, I’m at 100% so far. I predicted Mike Huckabee wouldn’t run about a month before his announcement. I don’t think I ever believed Donald Trump would run. I was saying Rick Perry would run a few weeks before he did and I called it on Bachmann long before she made the announcement.
To be fair, it didn’t require a rocket scientist to make those predictions, but at least I’m part of the small crowd that was right on all of them. Will my prediction record end with Sarah Palin? And what is my prediction?
My prediction with Sarah Palin is that she does not run and endorses Rick Perry. There are multiple reasons for this, none of which have not already been covered by others, but all of which play a role in me throwing my opinion of the scenario out there in the form of a prediction.
1) The RGA Relationship With Rick Perry – Governor Palin, through the Republican Governor’s Association, has a relationship with Rick Perry. I can’t find any big evidence suggesting they’re “good” friends, but it’s clear they know each other and have never really been at odds. In fact, all evidence (and there isn’t a lot of it) suggests they strongly support each other and always have.
2) Palin Endorsed Rick Perry’s Re-Election Campaign – Rick Perry faced a fairly tough primary challenge last time around. For a while it looked as if he might have actually been toppled by the more libertarian candidate in the primary. After a comment about “trutherism” on the Glenn Beck show knocked that candidate out, Perry pulled out ahead and won.
That victory didn’t come without the help of Sarah Palin. In fact, Pain endorsed Rick Perry and hit the campaign trail for his re-election efforts. Now this doesn’t mean she can’t now oppose him, but doing so would be much tougher and call into question her own decision making in candidates she supports.
3) The Tea Party Showdown – I keep asking myself “does Sarah Palin really want to go to political war with Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul and Rick Perry?” You have to keep in mind that all of these candidates have tea party support. Tea partiers have contributed to and volunteered for these campaigns, and running against them would mean running against factions of the movement.
I could be wrong, but I just don’t think Palin wants to engage in that war.
4) Campaign Infrastructure – I know Palin likes to “go rogue” in the way she does things, but even as a rogue candidate you have to have infrastructure of some sort. Media is great, but media alone does not turn out voters.
Palin has almost ZERO campaign infrastructure in place in battleground states. Furthermore, there aren’t many folks with experience left and hiring a competent team this late in the game would be very difficult.
5) Filing Deadlines – While no state ballot deadline has been crossed as of yet, there are a few on the horizon and Palin has to announce either way within the next few weeks.
6) Continued Relevance – This one is vital. Palin is a media machine and few in politics are able to drive narratives like she can. Plus, Palin is a MAJOR figure in the modern day tea party movement. If Palin isn’t going to run, she’ll have to do something big to remain relevant. She’ll also need to do something with her active and eager support base.
If Palin endorses Perry, it would seal the deal on giving Perry an almost overwhelming amount of tea party support. It would also keep Palin in a key position as an important player in the POTUS race. Palin would essentially become a king-maker in some ways, and would still be just as valuable int he eyes of the media.
7) The Romney Death Blow – A few months back Sarah Palin turned up in New Hampshire on the same day as Romney and robbed him of headlines across the nation. Palin knows New Hampshire is Romney’s ticket and she needs to hammer him down regardless of whether or not she runs.
If Palin were to endorse Rick Perry at a tea party event in New Hampshire, she would essentially deliver a death blow to Romney in his strongest state. Palin keeps her title as being the tea party fighter, she gets millions and millions of earned media, she knocks Romney out with an uppercut, she remains a critical figure in the 2012 election and she doesn’t have to initiate a campaign of her own. Nor would she have to go to the mat with Bachmann, Paul, Perry and Cain.
I could most certainly be wrong on this, but would be shocked if that turns out to be the case. At the very least she doesn’t run, and if she doesn’t run an endorsement would seem the next logical step.
So there you have it…
-Eric Odom
As HotAir.com pointed out yesterday, Sarah Palin has a new look to her PAC website and it’s looking pretty good. But not just good… Presidential Campaign good!
Looks good, and it’s clearly intended to make a statement coming so soon after her gangbusters Wisconsin speech. I’m especially intrigued by the “Request an Event†feature; neither Huckabee’s nor Romney’s website has a section like that. Politico speculates that it’s her way of better organizing her speaking invitations, but major institutions aren’t going to reach out via a web interface. I think it’s there to emphasize her connection to her grassroots supporters, suggesting that she’ll consider any request from someone who’s interested in hosting her, not just the big players who can contact her team through back channels.
HotAir.com points out this could just be a step to get more connected with the grassroots portion of the movement and not necessarily a move towards an announcement of any sort, which is certainly possible. In all honesty, I’m in the club of “who the heck knows what she wants?” when it comes to Sarah Palin.
Unlike many of my friends in the politico world, though, I think Sarah Palin is a much stronger primary than they like to admit. Let me explain…
First, let’s look at a survey put together by HotAir.com for HotAir.com readers. Granted, the survey is just a glorified web poll, but this one was done a little different. The original post asked readers to choose a candidate, then followed that up by asking readers to choose their level of approval for each candidate, regardless of who they voted for.
The results are rather telling. In fact, if you look at the “peer average” approval rating you’ll see that Sarah Palin is pretty much liked by most of the people who voted, even if they didn’t vote for her.
This confirms what I’ve heard from most people I know who don’t initially support Sarah Palin. While she wouldn’t be the first choice, she would be fairly acceptable to support if she started gaining momentum in the primary, then would be VERY easy to support against Barack Obama.
The same can’t be said for all current potential primary candidates. I guarantee you that if Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich or Mitt Romney start pulling a John McCain on the primary, enthusiasm amongst hardcore conservatives will slip in another direction. If one of them come out of the primary, the general will be very tough.
Second, Sarah Palin commands media attention like no other. While Mike Huckabee and others have to work overtime to get any significant attention in Iowa and other key states, Sarah Palin shows up and basically has to run a full time media operation just to deal with the frenzy that follows.
Where some candidates will have to raise and spend a ton of money to be “talked about,” among primary voters, Sarah Palin will get to pick and choose earned media, and it will be a never ending PR buffet where she can use as much as she wants or needs.
Third, Sarah Palin has a COMMANDING grip on social media. Well, actually, her online support base does. Right now she’s nearing some 3,000,000 fans on Facebook. This gives her the ability to immediately send hundreds of thousands of activists to a donation link, news article or political action.
Fourth, while we’re on the subject of a very large, very active and very loyal base, Sarah Palin is the only candidate who has one this significant. Sure, Huckabee has “Huck’s Army,” but that online base is nothing compared to the enthusiasm surrounding Palin online. Mitt Romney, Tim Pawlenty, Herman Cain and the rest will constantly be trying to get a piece of the online action, and if Sarah Palin is in the race… they’ll always look second tier on that front.
Fifth, Sarah Palin has been touring key states for a couple years now. She’s been in the trenches in Nevada, Florida, Wisconsin and pretty much every state in the union. While she may not have pull with the Jeb Bush crowd in Florida, she has a wealth of support from actual primary voters and establishment “endorsements” are going to carry much less water in 2012.
Sixth, Sarah Palin has openly declared war on the left, the media, Barack Obama’s failed policies and the progressive movement in general. In a time where a Historic tea party movement is preparing for the political fight of their lives… leader is needed who will call the enemy out and confront it at every turn.
In 2012 I believe most primary voters are going to be looking for excitement, momentum and something completely different. There is a smaller crowd of voters who will stick with the comfortable establishment picks, but as we saw in Delaware and Nevada last year, that crowd isn’t outvoting the tea party movement.
And that’s why I believe that if Sarah Palin gets in… she wins the primary.
Now the general election is for a whole new post.
-Eric Odom
Yes… it’s time for another silly “web poll” for my readers and email subscribers. While these might be useless to some, they’re somewhat entertaining to others. To me especially because I somewhat get a glimpse of where my readers stand on the candidates.
This new poll is up due to Mitt Romney’s announcement that his “Exploratory Committee” is now running full steam ahead.
Those who have now announced the formation of a public 2012 Presidential Exploratory Committee include:
-Mitt Romney
-Michele Bachmann
-Herman Cain
-Tim Pawlenty
Vote in the poll below: (email readers may need to click here to see poll)
NOTE: On Wednesday, April 13th, I’ll be putting out a special newsletter with my analysis of these four candidates. Please be sure to subscribe to 24Liberty.com if you wish to receive the special newsletter.
At this point in time… who do you see as the most promising out of the “announced” candidates for 2012?online surveys
According to a recent Neighborhood Research Survey Mike Huckabee is dominating the scene in Iowa.
1. Mike Huckabee 21.0%
2. Mitt Romney 13.5%
3. Donald Trump 8.8%
4. Newt Gingrich 7.8%
5. Sarah Palin 6.6%
6. Michele Bachmann 5.3%
7. Tim Pawlenty 4.4%
8. Ron Paul 3.4%
9. Herman Cain 2.5%
10. Rick Santorum 1.3%
The worst part of this poll is the fact that the three candidates who will get the LEAST movement support are the three candidates currently leading in Iowa (except for Donald Trump, and I just don’t know what to think of him at the moment).
At first glance I want to think this is the more establishment minded base of the Republican Party. But then there is this.
By a 51-32 margin, respondents support a government shutdown if Republicans cannot get President Obama to agree to spending cuts.
With 51% supporting a government shutdown, you have to feel that a good chunk of fiscally conservatives took part in this poll. Mike Huckabee, in the past, has been far more associated with social conservatism. Granted, he does strongly support the Fair Tax, but supporting a Fair Tax while having a History of tax hikes as Governor of Arkansas doesn’t really help make the fiscal case in my book.
Things could certainly change, no doubt. Plus, this is just a poll. Polls showed Sharron Angle pulling less than 5% of the primary vote back in June of 2012… and guess who the nominee was?
Anything can happen, but this poll still has me a bit worried.
-Eric Odom
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