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Yesterday I published a post over at LibertyNews.com that points to some recent news about Sarah Palin. From Palin’s rally in Iowa, to the controversy over Christine O’Donnell, to her appearance with the Tea Party Express in New Hampshire, there is a ton of news/buzz flowing and it’s hard to determine what to make of it all.

That said, I’m going to step out on a limb and answer the question so many friends and followers have asked, which is “what do you think Sarah Palin will do?

As far as predictions go, I’m at 100% so far. I predicted Mike Huckabee wouldn’t run about a month before his announcement. I don’t think I ever believed Donald Trump would run. I was saying Rick Perry would run a few weeks before he did and I called it on Bachmann long before she made the announcement.

To be fair, it didn’t require a rocket scientist to make those predictions, but at least I’m part of the small crowd that was right on all of them. Will my prediction record end with Sarah Palin? And what is my prediction?

My prediction with Sarah Palin is that she does not run and endorses Rick Perry. There are multiple reasons for this, none of which have not already been covered by others, but all of which play a role in me throwing my opinion of the scenario out there in the form of a prediction.

1) The RGA Relationship With Rick Perry – Governor Palin, through the Republican Governor’s Association, has a relationship with Rick Perry. I can’t find any big evidence suggesting they’re “good” friends, but it’s clear they know each other and have never really been at odds. In fact, all evidence (and there isn’t a lot of it) suggests they strongly support each other and always have.

2) Palin Endorsed Rick Perry’s Re-Election Campaign – Rick Perry faced a fairly tough primary challenge last time around. For a while it looked as if he might have actually been toppled by the more libertarian candidate in the primary. After a comment about “trutherism” on the Glenn Beck show knocked that candidate out, Perry pulled out ahead and won.

That victory didn’t come without the help of Sarah Palin. In fact, Pain endorsed Rick Perry and hit the campaign trail for his re-election efforts. Now this doesn’t mean she can’t now oppose him, but doing so would be much tougher and call into question her own decision making in candidates she supports.

3) The Tea Party Showdown – I keep asking myself “does Sarah Palin really want to go to political war with Michele Bachmann, Herman Cain, Ron Paul and Rick Perry?” You have to keep in mind that all of these candidates have tea party support. Tea partiers have contributed to and volunteered for these campaigns, and running against them would mean running against factions of the movement.

I could be wrong, but I just don’t think Palin wants to engage in that war.

4) Campaign Infrastructure – I know Palin likes to “go rogue” in the way she does things, but even as a rogue candidate you have to have infrastructure of some sort. Media is great, but media alone does not turn out voters.

Palin has almost ZERO campaign infrastructure in place in battleground states. Furthermore, there aren’t many folks with experience left and hiring a competent team this late in the game would be very difficult.

5) Filing Deadlines – While no state ballot deadline has been crossed as of yet, there are a few on the horizon and Palin has to announce either way within the next few weeks.

6) Continued Relevance – This one is vital. Palin is a media machine and few in politics are able to drive narratives like she can. Plus, Palin is a MAJOR figure in the modern day tea party movement. If Palin isn’t going to run, she’ll have to do something big to remain relevant. She’ll also need to do something with her active and eager support base.

If Palin endorses Perry, it would seal the deal on giving Perry an almost overwhelming amount of tea party support. It would also keep Palin in a key position as an important player in the POTUS race. Palin would essentially become a king-maker in some ways, and would still be just as valuable int he eyes of the media.

7) The Romney Death Blow – A few months back Sarah Palin turned up in New Hampshire on the same day as Romney and robbed him of headlines across the nation. Palin knows New Hampshire is Romney’s ticket and she needs to hammer him down regardless of whether or not she runs.

If Palin were to endorse Rick Perry at a tea party event in New Hampshire, she would essentially deliver a death blow to Romney in his strongest state. Palin keeps her title as being the tea party fighter, she gets millions and millions of earned media, she knocks Romney out with an uppercut, she remains a critical figure in the 2012 election and she doesn’t have to initiate a campaign of her own. Nor would she have to go to the mat with Bachmann, Paul, Perry and Cain.

I could most certainly be wrong on this, but would be shocked if that turns out to be the case. At the very least she doesn’t run, and if she doesn’t run an endorsement would seem the next logical step.

So there you have it…

-Eric Odom